Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American College typically known as the Nostradamus of presidential elections, has two notes for you: there isn’t a such factor as an October shock and Kamala Harris remains to be set to win.
Showing on CNN, Lichtman stated: “Nothing has modified. The largest fantasy in American politics is the so-called October shock. I’ve all the time issued my predictions earlier than then, and by no means change them.
He continued: “In 2016 for instance, we had the most important October shock, Donald Trump on tape bragging about sexually assaulting girls, and loads of girls popping out and saying: ‘yeah, he did that to me.’ Even Republicans had been saying he was completed. I didn’t change my prediction of a Trump win.”
Lichtman was referring to an Entry Hollywood tape leaked in early October lower than a month away from election day, again in 2016 when he was operating towards Hillary Clinton. Trump was heard bragging in vulgar phrases about girls. And look how that turned out. Lichtman has an nearly excellent observe document of calling presidential elections over the previous 4 many years. This election 12 months, he’s predicting a Harris win, and he isn’t altering course, regardless of feeling extra anxious about it than ever earlier than.
“I’ve by no means skilled the type of hate I’ve had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. I’ve had hate that’s scurrilous, vulgar, threatening, violent…We’ve needed to notify the police we’ve needed to fortify our residence. It’s been terribly upsetting.”
He continued: “The opposite factor is, I imagine democracy is on the road on this election. If I’m improper, so be it. You already know, I believe being improper as soon as will not be going to discredit my system, however I believe if I’m improper, then our democracy is in very critical peril. Democracy is treasured, however it may be destroyed and it’s nearly all the time destroyed from inside. And sadly, the pattern of this century has been the decline of democracy, everywhere in the world. And I’m apprehensive about our nation.”
In nationwide polls, Harris has the tiniest little bit of lead on Trump, nevertheless it actually is neck-and-neck. Both approach, even when it’s a fantasy, what was this 12 months’s so-called October shock for the Trump marketing campaign? Possibly the rally at Madison Sq. Backyard? Quite a lot of headlines got here out of that one, however comic Tony Hinchcliffe’s feedback about Puerto Rico might take the cake.
Democrats after all ran with it. Alternatively, Trump claimed he had “completed extra for Puerto Rico than any president by far, no one shut,” later including: “I’ll ship the perfect future for Puerto Ricans and for Hispanic People. Kamala will ship you poverty and crime.” Fortune’s Shawn Tully reported that Trump blew an enormous lead and that rally began the drop.
For the Harris marketing campaign, her billionaire surrogate Mark Cuban might have delivered a kind of October shock, the final day of the month, too. On The View, when requested what he thinks about Trump seemingly not calling on former presidential candidate Nikki Haley for assist, he stated: “Donald Trump, you by no means see him round sturdy, clever girls. Ever. It’s simply that straightforward. They’re intimidating to him. He doesn’t wish to be challenged by them.”
It appeared that he was talking in regards to the individuals Trump chooses to have round him on the marketing campaign path, however Cuban obtained loads of warmth for what he stated. He later apologized for and clarified his feedback to counsel he is aware of many sturdy, clever girls who’re voting for Trump, who help Trump, and who’ve labored with Trump.
Election day is tomorrow. We’ll see if Lichtman known as it proper—once more.
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